Presidenciales americanas: Obama (D) y Huckabee (R) ganan en Iowa

viernes, enero 04, 2008

La buena noticia es que perdió Hillary. Aunque Obama tampoco es una maravilla, como ya dije aquí. De NYT:

Primero los demócratas:
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, a one-term Democratic senator trying to become the nation’s first African-American president, rolled to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night, lifted by what appeared to be a record turnout of voters who rejected the criticism that he did not have enough experience.
Mr. Obama’s victory amounted to a significant setback for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, who just months ago appeared to be the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination, but has watched her position erode over the past several months. The result also left uncertain the prospects for John Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, who had staked his second bid for the White House on winning this state.

Segundo, los republicanos: ganó Huckabee que desde luego no era el favorito.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who was barely a blip on the national scene just two months ago, defeated Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, delivering a serious setback to Mr. Romney’s high-spending campaign and putting pressure on Mr. Romney to win in New Hampshire next Tuesday.

With nearly 80 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Mr. Huckabee won with 34 percent of the vote to 25 percent for Mr. Romney and 13 percent each for Mr. Thompson and Mr. McCain.

También en Bloomberg.

Comentarios en la blogosfera:

The Moderate Voice. Interesante el apunte sobre la "mano" de Bush en las elecciones, desde el lado demócrata: consideran que ha ganado Obama para ir en contra de Bush y que los republicanos no se han distinguido mucho respecto de la política de Bush. Lo cual sería discutible, aunque desde luegocorrecto desde la perspectiva demócrata.

Tammy Bruce:

onsidering Republicanism died in the 2006 election, and the "party leader" George W. Bush is a liberal who ended up turning Reagan Conservatism on its ear, we shouldn't be so surprised the GOP is confused after Iowa. We, the People, have been confused by them for years. If they actually had some sort of leadership, didn't have such contempt for the people, and weren't more concerned with Saudi Arabia's profits than our homeland security and sovereignty, maybe they'd have their act together.

Part of my support for Giuliani is based in the fact that he's not from the Washington establishment and could represent a return to the Reagan Coalition. Huckabee, on the other hand, is the complete opposite of what Reagan stood for, and is an embarrassment to the legacy of President Reagan.


a couple of thoughts. The first theme, at least for Iowans, was their vote wasn't for sale. The best financed campaigns didn't take the win. I think that surprised some people, me included. I figured one of the two, either Clinton or Romney, would pull off a win.

But both were soundly beaten, with each going down by 9 points and Clinton ending up in third place.

While it is a set back for Romney, it was a disaster for Clinton. As someone commented, John Edward's post-caucus speech sounded more like a victory speech than that of a second place finisher. The reason it sounded like that is because he beat Hillary Clinton.

The second theme of the caucus was "change". And it became a finger pointing game as to who was and wasn't the "agent of change". John Edwards, again pointing to Hillary Clinton, said in his speech that change had won and the status quo (guess who that might be) had lost.

Hay que comentar que Hillary Clinton ha quedado tercera, por detrás de Edwards, lo que ha sorprendido, no sólo por lo que dice QandO (era la mejor financiada), si no porque muchos se esperaban que las mujeres fueran a votarla por ser mujer. Y no ha sido así. Lo cual es una buena noticia, no porque pierda por ser mujer, si no por ser esa mujer. H.Clinton es vista como excesivamente "hawkish", o sea, "halcona", dentro de la comunidad demócrata. Y eso puede desde luego frenar el voto a su favor, para alivio de muchos.
Precisamente a esto se refiere Hot Air:

There’s little room to argue that Huckabee’s win wasn’t built on identity politics — he won decisively among voters who “share his values,” and Iowa’s GOPers are 60% evangelicals. On the other side, Obama beat Clinton across the board and among women, who ought to be her core. If she gets half the women’s vote, she wins. But she didn’t.

Precisamente se ha señalado que los Clinton ya no son la vida del partido:

after 15 years of domination, the Clinton dynasty has finally lost its grip on the Democratic Party.

More than anything else, Clinton's campaign was built upon the aura of inevitability.

That's now shattered and left in Iowa's frozen cornfields.

What's devastating to her is that she lost so badly to such a political novice.

Sure, Barack Obama is an incredibly impressive and appealing figure. He has magically turned the nasty politics of race on its head here in a state with a less than 3 percent black population.

His hopeful determination to end the sordid politics that the Clintons are such masters of has even lifelong Republicans eager to vote for him.

Still, Obama has four years less experience in the Senate than Clinton.

And he didn't spend eight years in the White House as first lady like she did. He hasn't met one-tenth of the world leaders that she's met. Whatever.

El Opinador Compulsivo:
Vamos a ver como afecta esto nacionalmente a Hillary quien esta arriba de Obama por 45% a 28%. Hillary tiene el aparato y la plata, Obama tiene a Hollywood y parte de la prensa. En el otro lado Romney tiene mucha guita y esta preparado para "the long run"y Huckabee es un tirado que tiene que salir a buscar fondos (y encima tiene a Rush respirandole en la nuca). Tambien con el correr de las semanas se vera si la estrategia de Guiliani de no hacer campana en los primeros estados fue la correcta o no, y si las ganas de los Republicanos por un conservador empujara a Thompson al frente o ya esta desinflado. Es importante tambien saber a quienes apoyaran Thompson y McCain de renunciar a las primarias.
Fausta postea varios links.

Daniel Rodríguez Herrera hace una apuesta.

For Iowans, Republicans for every kind of taste
International Herald Tribune - Jan 2, 2008
By Mark Leibovich DES MOINES, Iowa: As Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee were hitting points all over Iowa in a closing flurry before the caucuses Thursday, it could seem as if they were campaigning in three entirely different worlds.
Today on the presidential campaign trail News & Observer
Iowa, NH: More than geography separates the early voting states Barre Montpelier Times Argus
KPTM-TV - San Diego Union Tribune - Pierceland Herald - WHAS (subscription)
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